'RJ era is over' says noted airline consultant

Perhaps the most interesting prediction to come out of a new forecast by The Boyd Group, a major airline consultancy, is that “The RJ era is over”.

The consultancy’s 2008 – 2017 Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast contends that regional jets are simply too costly to operate with Jet A fuel prices at their present levels. “There are no market fundamentals that indicate fuel will drop significantly in the future,” opines the report. “High crude prices combined with the weak dollar, plus constricted refining and distribution infrastructures, all indicate that the airline industry must plan and adjust their fleets accordingly.”

The Boyd Group says we should get set for, “massive retirements of regional jets over the next five years”.

A Cheapflights observation: implications of that could be curtailment of service to smaller cities around the country, or, perhaps, the cessation of that service in some places altogether.

More insight as far as regional airliners, this time from the Regional Airline Association. The industry trade association maintains: “More than 100 airports and countless other communities could lose some or all airline service under a recent congestion pricing proposal by the U.S. Department of Transportation.”

Citing as possible examples such smaller cities as Decatur, Illinois (DEC); Beaumont/Port Arthur, Texas (BPT); Cheyenne, Wyoming (CYS); Latrobe, Pennsylvania (LBE); and Oxnard/Ventura, California (OXR), the RAA criticizes DOT’s proposal that would allow airports to employ a two-part formula for structuring landing fees based on weight, plus a pre-operation charge. This in contrast to standard, and historically accepted, weight-based fees.

In a prepared release the Regional Airline Association asserts that DOT’s goal is “to increase fees for smaller aircraft flights serving the most popular airports, at the most convenient times, thereby threatening small and medium-sized communities with dramatic fare increases and air services losses.”

The RAA, along with other industry groups such as the Air Transport Association have urged the Federal Aviation Administration and DOT to get at the root causes of delays, and that entails fixing an aging, and oft-times inadequate, air traffic control system.

© Cheapflights Ltd Jerry Chandler

Comments

[Mike]

Is it rational or fair that a DHC-8 flying 37 passengers into a major airport slows down air traffic creating system delays costing hundreds of thousands of dollars as the backup cascades across the country resulting in flow control while paying 1/100th the price of a loaded 747?

The DHC-8 is not speed compatible with jet traffic and does more economic harm to others than the possible help to serve itself. This is after all due consideration is given to feed and connecting traffic.

[Dave]

Mike - you are either the airline hired gun or just swayed by the press. The notion that all the ground stops at the major airports are SOLELY that we are waiting for the Dash-8 to land or clear the area is tripe. The airlines merely want to dump heavy user fees onto the smaller operations, to take the attention off the fact that they cannot compete in those markets. Just wait until that uncertified mechanic in China servicing the United Fleet has a landing gear failure and it will come to light what the real root causes of the airline woes are.